Sizing up potential foes for Yankees, Phillies
Best and worst cases for two league leaders as postseason nears
By Anthony Castrovince / MLB.com
9/23/2011 10:00 AM ET
If we're being romantic, idealistic, maybe even a tad dramatic, we could say that a would-be world champion sports team ought to be able to defeat any challenger that comes between it and the crown.
"You can't be scared, and you can't look to dodge nobody," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said. "Bring 'em on. Let's get 'em. Line 'em up. Whatever."
That sentiment plays to the heart. But what about the head?
After all, if we're being realistic, we must acknowledge that some playoff scenarios are simply more attractive than others.
That's what makes this final week of regular season games for the Phillies and Yankees strangely captivating.
One might assume the two teams ensured the No. 1 seeds in their respective leagues (the Phillies have locked up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, while the Yanks are on the verge of doing so through the American League Championship Series) ought to have little else but lining up their postseason rotations on their minds. Yet both of these clubs have an opportunity to be spoilers in the home stretch and, therefore, help determine the playoff field they'll be facing.
The Yankees have already had some say in the AL Wild Card race, taking three of four from the Rays in the Bronx this week. Next on their agenda is a weekend three-game set against the Red Sox, who are clinging to a two-game Wild Card lead over the Rays and a three-game lead on the Angels. And after that series, the Yanks will close out their season with three games in Tampa Bay.
The Phillies will also finish out the year against a division foe desperate for a postseason berth, as they'll play three in Atlanta from Monday through Wednesday. The Braves' Wild Card lead on the Cardinals currently stands at two games.
Let's acknowledge the obvious fact that both the Yankees and Phillies want to win every game on the schedule, no matter the opponent.
"That's just being a grown man and being an athlete," Yankees ace CC Sabathia said. "Any time you step on the field, I don't think there's anybody out there that doesn't play hard."
And let's also acknowledge that there are factors in the two Wild Card races that are out of their control. If the Yankees sweep the Red Sox this weekend, the Rays and/or Angels still have to hold up their end of the bargain. And by the time the Phillies face the Braves on Monday, who knows how much meaning those games will have in the playoff picture by that point? A lot can change in three days.
"I feel like we can't do nothing about it," Manuel said. "If we had beaten St. Louis in some of these games here [last weekend], we could have done something about it, but we didn't. We clinched, and all of a sudden, [the Cardinals] ended up taking three out of four from us. That got them back in the running. If we would've beaten them one more time, it might have been a big difference for them."
All that said, how much difference will a particular playoff opponent make in the Phillies' and Yankees' bids to go the distance?
While understanding that October is a season unto itself, let's attempt to answer that question objectively, based on the regular season stats:
PHILLIES
Playoff possibilities: If the Braves get knocked out of the Wild Card spot, the Cardinals will be the Phillies' first-round foe. If Atlanta makes it, Philly will face either the Brewers or D-backs, depending on who has the worse regular season record. The Phillies and Braves can't meet in the first round because they are in the same division.
Best-case scenario? The Braves hold on, and the Brewers edge the D-backs in the race for the second seed.
Why? While the vaunted Phillies rotation has the potential to outlast anybody, it has been particularly effective against the D-backs this season. Small-sample-size alert, as we're just talking about six games, but Arizona has hit just .189 with a .577 on-base-plus-slugging-percentage off Phillies pitching this season. The Cards, on the other hand, have hit .275 with a .748 OPS in nine games against the Phils. The Brewers have hit .244 with a .673 OPS in seven games, and the Braves have hit .225 with a .625 OPS in 15 games.
On the offensive side, the Phillies have hit .270 with a .777 OPS against the D-backs, .256 with a .706 OPS against the Braves, .229 with a .654 OPS against the Brew Crew, and .233 with a .628 OPS against the Cards.
Bottom line: The Braves are beaten up in their rotation, their bullpen has shown some signs of fatigue, and the Phillies are 9-6 against them this season. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have momentum and showed it in taking three of four in Philly last week. They are a respectable 6-3 against a Phillies team that's likely going to finish with more than 100 wins.
The Phillies, it would appear, are best off avoiding the Cards. But Manuel, of course, would never say such a thing, nor could the Phillies be expected to tank in the season's final series.
"I look at it like Walter Alston used to say," Manuel said, "'Champions can beat anybody.'"
YANKEES
Playoff possibilities: Multiple scenarios exist here. If the Red Sox hold on or the Rays knock off Boston, the Yankees will face either the Tigers or Rangers, depending on who has the worse record. If the Angels win the Wild Card, the Yankees will face them. The Yankees can't face the Rays or Red Sox in the first round.
Best-case scenario? The Rays grab the Wild Card, and the Yanks draw the Rangers in the first round.
Why? As much as Boston is banged up and reeling, the statistical fact is that the Red Sox have had the upper hand on the Yanks this season, to the tune of an 11-4 record. That stems from the Boston offense batting .291 with an .846 OPS against New York pitching (Sabathia is 1-4 with a 6.39 ERA against Boston) and Red Sox pitching limiting the Yankees' potent lineup to a .232 average and .701 OPS.
Compare that to what the Yankees have done against Texas. They have beaten them seven times in nine meetings and outscored them 61-35. They have hit .291 with a .932 OPS against Rangers pitching and limited their hitters to a .238 average and .632 OPS.
Until Bartolo Colon blew up Thursday night, the Yankees had shown they can handle the Rays, beating them in nine of the previous 14 meetings and outscoring them 53-37 along the way. The Yankees are 3-4 against the Tigers but haven't faced them since way back on May 5. They've scored six runs in 12 innings against Justin Verlander, but for our purposes, we'll just assume the longer you can avoid Verlander, the better.
Bottom line: The head and the heart combine here. If statistical incentive isn't enough for the Yanks to want to knock the Sox out of contention, then there's always the pure passion that stems from the game's most storied rivalry.
Yankees catcher Russell Martin acknowledged as much.
"[The Red Sox] are fun to play against, just because they have a quality team and are gritty and play hard and stuff, but I'd love to see them lose," Martin said. "I guess it just comes with the territory, you know? When you wear the pinstripes, you just kind of learn to be that way, I guess."
Anthony Castrovince is a reporter for MLB.com. Read his columns and his blog, CastroTurf , and follow him on Twitter at @Castrovince . Reporters Todd Zolecki, Aaron Taube and Bryan Hoch contributed to this story. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
